The 2022 midterm elections are less than two months away. Since at least the mid-1800s, the party that controls the White House has typically lost seats in Congress in the midterm elections. The size of the loss correlated, to varying degrees, with the disappointment with the president and the president’s party, the state of the economy, the ebb and flow of turnout for the two parties, as well as occasional scandals or crises. There have been 19 midterm elections since the end of World War II in 1945. In 17 of those elections, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. The average loss has been 27 House seats. Today, if the GOP gained that many seats, it would be more than enough for the party to become the House majority in January 2023. In the Senate, the historical pattern also tilts toward opposition-party gains, but the tendency is less consistent than in the House.

Could 2022 break the historical pattern of presidential losses in a midterm? What are the key implications for the business community in the upcoming elections? AmCham invites members to a virtual meeting on the evening of October 6 with two experts from the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington.